XRP in 2026: Ripple's Buyback, Escrow, and the Activity Decline Explained

KEY POINTS

• XRP on-chain payments have dropped approximately 45% year-on-year, with daily active addresses falling to near 16,000 and transaction volumes at their lowest levels in twelve months.
• Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow in January 2026 as part of its monthly unlock schedule, but historically returns 60% to 80% back to escrow, leaving a much smaller net supply increase than headlines suggest.
• Ripple launched a $750 million company share buyback in March 2026 valuing the firm at $50 billion, while a separate $1 billion XRP token treasury plan signals the company's long-term confidence in the asset despite the price sitting around $1.33 to $1.47.

If you have been watching the XRP market in 2026, you have probably noticed a disconnect that is hard to ignore. Ripple, the company most closely associated with XRP, is executing a $750 million share buyback at a $50 billion valuation. Its president says there are no IPO plans. It spent $2.45 billion on acquisitions in 2025 alone and it is planning to build a $1 billion XRP digital asset treasury.

Yet the token itself is trading around $1.33 to $1.47, more than 60% below its all-time high of $3.66. On-chain activity is declining and the XRP ledger's daily active addresses have fallen to near 16,000.

The XRP activity decline: what the data actually shows

The XRP Ledger activity decline in 2026 is real, and the numbers are worth understanding clearly.

On-chain payments on the XRP Ledger have dropped approximately 45% year-on-year according to AInvest analysis. Daily active wallet addresses peaked in July 2025 and have fallen significantly since. Transaction volumes, which surged to 2 to 3 billion XRP per day during the November to December 2024 bull run, have rarely crossed 1 billion XRP per day since January 2025. As of early April 2026, the number of addresses actively transacting on the ledger has declined to near 16,000, while XRP ETF inflows recorded a $661,000 outflow in a single recent session, suggesting softening institutional appetite in the short term.

A broader report covering 2025 confirmed total XRPL transactions declined 7.81% compared to 2024, though chain fees surged 212% over the same period, peaking in January 2025.

The bearish reading of these numbers is that declining on-chain activity points to fading user engagement, diminished utility, and waning interest from both retail and institutional participants. The legal clarity XRP received when the SEC dropped its appeal in March 2025 did not translate into renewed on-chain momentum, which analysts have flagged as a genuine concern.

The more nuanced reading is that the activity metrics need context. Analysts studying the XRP Ledger note that its strategic direction has shifted toward institutional and regulated use cases, where activity occurs through private channels, off-ledger settlement, and partnerships that do not always surface in public on-chain data. Total value locked on the XRPL has grown 37.4% to $75.5 million, and the stablecoin market cap on the ledger has grown to $306 million, with RLUSD holding a 77% share.

So which story is right? Here is the full picture.

How XRP escrow releases actually work

One of the most misunderstood mechanics in the XRP market is Ripple's monthly escrow release, and getting it right matters for understanding the real supply picture.

Back in 2017, Ripple locked 55 billion XRP into cryptographically secured escrow accounts to ensure supply predictability. Every month, 1 billion XRP is automatically released from escrow. This is the number that generates alarming headlines every January. But the headline figure is not the market impact figure.

In practice, Ripple uses only 200 to 300 million XRP per month for operational liquidity, institutional partnerships, and ecosystem growth. The remaining 700 to 800 million tokens are immediately returned to new escrow contracts. In December 2025, approximately 70% of unlocked XRP was returned to escrow, leaving less than 300 to 400 million XRP potentially liquid.

As of late March 2026, approximately 33.6 billion XRP remain locked in escrow. At the current net release pace, analysts now project the escrow will not be depleted until sometime between 2035 and 2040, significantly later than earlier models predicted.

The supply picture on exchanges tells a separate and arguably more important story. XRP exchange reserves dropped to a seven-year low of approximately 1.6 billion tokens by early 2026, down more than 50% from approximately 3.76 billion in October 2024. That kind of sustained multi-month decline typically reflects deliberate long-horizon repositioning by large holders rather than panic selling.

Ripple's $1 billion XRP token treasury plan

In October 2025, Ripple announced plans to raise $1 billion in XRP through a special purpose acquisition company structure to create a Digital Asset Treasury, or DAT. The stated goal was to accumulate XRP directly into a treasury model, drawing explicit comparisons to the strategies used by MicroStrategy and Metaplanet for Bitcoin.

Ripple held approximately 4.74 billion XRP worth about $11 billion at the time of the announcement, with an additional 35.9 billion in escrow. The $1 billion buyback plan was designed to consolidate additional tokens into a treasury vehicle that could function both as a price stabiliser and as a signal of institutional confidence.

The market reaction was mixed. Supporters argued that a company buying its own token demonstrates genuine conviction and could reduce net circulating supply over time. Critics, including Chainlink community liaison Zach Rynes, raised pointed questions about whether using XRP sales proceeds to fund company buybacks and acquisitions ultimately benefits token holders or primarily rewards Ripple equity shareholders.

The distinction matters because XRP token holders have no equity claim on Ripple Labs. Whatever Ripple does with its $50 billion valuation does not automatically translate into XRP price appreciation.

Ripple's $750 million share buyback and the $50 billion valuation

The more recent buyback story is at the company level, not the token level, and the two are easy to confuse.

In March 2026, Ripple launched a $750 million share buyback program, offering to repurchase equity from early investors and employees at a price that values the company at approximately $50 billion. The offer runs through April 2026, with shares priced at roughly $143, rising to above $151 on secondary markets following the announcement.

This follows a similar buyback in January 2024 at an $11.3 billion valuation, and an attempted round in September 2025 at $40 billion that attracted almost no sellers because employees were confident the valuation would keep climbing. The 342% jump in Ripple's private valuation from $11.3 billion to $50 billion happened in just two years, even while Bitcoin fell 44% from its all-time high and XRP dropped over 60%.

Ripple's president Monica Long has been explicit that there are no IPO plans. The buyback gives long-term equity holders liquidity without a public listing. It also signals that Ripple's balance sheet, which held over $1 billion in cash and roughly $25 billion in crypto assets as of early 2024, remains robust despite the aggressive $2.45 billion acquisition spree in 2025.

Those acquisitions included the $1.25 billion purchase of prime brokerage Hidden Road, now operating as Ripple Prime, the $1 billion acquisition of corporate treasury management platform GTreasury, the $200 million purchase of stablecoin payments platform Rail, and the acquisition of custody firm Palisade for an undisclosed amount.

The bull case for XRP from the share buyback is indirect but real. A Ripple that is financially strong, institutionally connected through Hidden Road and GTreasury, and expanding its payment infrastructure is a Ripple that continues to develop the XRP Ledger and place XRP at the center of its products. Whether that confidence flows into the token's price depends on whether those institutional tools actually drive XRP Ledger adoption in the months ahead.

Is XRP a good buy right now?

The honest answer is that XRP presents a genuinely split picture in April 2026.

The activity decline is real and should not be dismissed. On-chain transactions falling 45% year-on-year, daily active addresses at 16,000, and exchange volume below 1 billion XRP per day are not the metrics of a thriving network in growth mode. Legal clarity from the SEC resolution has not yet translated into renewed on-chain momentum, and that gap between institutional narrative and on-chain reality is worth taking seriously.

At the same time, the broader macro picture around XRP is more constructive than the on-chain data alone suggests. Six active XRP ETFs attracted over $1.07 billion in net inflows in their first month. Exchange reserves have fallen to seven-year lows, suggesting long-horizon accumulation. Ripple's acquisition strategy positions the company as a genuine institutional payments infrastructure player. And RLUSD's 77% share of the XRPL stablecoin market suggests real traction in the regulated digital asset space.

At $1.33 to $1.47, XRP trades more than 60% below its all-time high with the $1.88 support level having held through multiple tests. For traders interested in tracking where sentiment sits, check out LBank's price forcast of XRP.

The honest framing is that XRP is not a story about what is happening on the ledger right now. It is a bet on whether Ripple's institutional infrastructure push translates into sustainable on-chain demand over the next 12 to 24 months. If it does, the combination of falling exchange supply, ETF inflows, and growing RLUSD adoption could be meaningful catalysts. If it does not, the activity decline becomes the dominant narrative.

As always, this is not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment.